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Last update - 17:26 17/05/2008 ANALYSIS / Siniora's gov't will fall, the question is when By Zvi Barel Tags: Lebanon, Beirut  Sad and tired, wearing shabby clothes and with tears in his eyes, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt stood on the veranda of his luxurious home in Beirut's Clemenceau neighborhood and explained his decision to television viewers. A few hours before the interview, he had called his political rival, Talal Arsalan, and asked him to coordinate with Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah the cessation of the fighting in Mount Lebanon, Aley, Chouf and the Maten region, the power centers of the Druze. In return, Jumblatt ordered his people to lay down their arms and hand them over to the Lebanese Army. Within the framework of the well-planned battle Hezbollah is conducting with the aim of changing the balance of power in Lebanon, the Mount Lebanon struggle, involving rival Druze families, might constitute Nasrallah's most important victory. After having occupied Beirut within hours and demonstrating his power in the northern city of Tripoli, Nasrallah succeeded not only in taking over the mount, but also in handing a huge victory to the Syrians. Arsalan, an ally of Syria, is now the mediator on behalf of that country, while Jumblatt is standing around, waiting for Nasrallah to put forward his next conditions. A small account and a large insult are now being settled between Arsalan and Jumblatt. Arsalan's rivals among the Druze relate, among other things, that he laundered money the Syrians received from Saddam Hussein in case it would be needed later in an emergency. According to them, the money laundering was accomplished through the Lebanese Al-Mawarid Bank, owned by the Kheireddine clan, to which Arsalan's wife belongs. When she decided she wanted to divorce her husband upon learning that he was having sex with his chauffeur, the Syrians began to pressure her family to order her to change her mind - after all, they still needed the bank's services. But the Syrian aid was not of much help to Arsalan in the 2005 elections. Back then Jumblatt won in the town of Choueifat, Arsalan's stronghold, but now the wheel has turned. Arsalan is striking back at Jumblatt. Advertisement Political kaleidoscope In internal Druze politics, this is a big deal; in Lebanese politics it is a routine matter. Shifting alliances, the betrayal of partners and the adoption of new ones are part and parcel of Lebanese politics, which in part accounts for its uniqueness. This is the way it works now and this is the way it has worked for generations. This is how Lebanon has lured foreign elements - be they French, Syrian or Israeli - into playing its domestic game, in the mistaken belief that its sectarian structure is easy prey for dragging the country to their side. It is enough to examine the political career of Jumblatt - who is today considered anti-Syrian, but was pro-Syrian in the past; at various times he was both pro- and anti- Palestinian, and an ally of the Shi'ites as well as their determined enemy - to understand the workings of Lebanese politics. Another telling sign is the change undergone by General Michel Aoun, who fought the Syrians bravely in 1990 and was forced into exile in Paris for about 15 years as a result. Today Aoun is Nasrallah's dear Christian ally and has adopted a pro-Syrian stance, at least according to his statement. Lebanon truly is a political kaleidoscope. "The Lebanese democracy is steeped in local colors. The rules taught in the political science department do not apply to it. The results of elections alone are not sufficient for running the country. Representation is lacking in a situation where not all the Lebanese families are participating in the government banquet and the decision-making banquet," is how Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of the London-based Arabic newspaper Dar Al-Hayat, puts it. Participation in the banquet is one thing. But Nasrallah now intends to preside over the event itself, while his rivals wail and hope that he will leave them an adequate part of the feast. Throughout the week it was possible to hear the wails of the losers, among them Prime Minister Fuad Siniora who, in lacerative rhetoric, described Hezbollah as "insurrectionists," exactly the same word Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas uses to describe Hamas. "They have stabbed democracy in the back," "They have colonized the center of Beirut," "We thought the enemy was Israel but now the enemy is here within," Siniora fired off. Former president Amin Gemayel also attacked Nasrallah at a press conference he gave on Monday, in front of a large picture of his son Pierre, who was killed about a year and a half ago by assassins, apparently affiliated with the Syrian regime. However, Siniora, Jumayyil, Samir Geagea - the fearsome commander of the Phalanges - and Walid Jumblatt all stood beggars this week, waiting for Nasrallah to have his say. The term that kept coming up was "dialogue," negotiations among the groups, or more precisely, "renewed participation in the banquet." Each of them have their own conditions. Siniora outlined his in the most detailed manner. For his part, he will revoke the decision that constituted the proximate cause of the explosion - that is to say, Nasrallah's private communications network will not be uprooted and the issue will be sent for examination to the army. In addition, the security chief at Beirut International Airport, Wafiq Shuqair, will be reinstated. In return, Hezbollah will withdraw all its armed forces from the streets, leaving the army the only power in charge of security. According to Siniora's proposal, after these conditions have been met, an agreed-upon president will be chosen - at present, the most likely incumbent is Michel Suleiman, the commander of the army - and, the most important condition as far as Siniora is concerned, Hezbollah's use of arms will be brought up for discussion in a joint dialogue between the sides. It is worth paying close attention to the formulation. Siniora is wary of talking about disarming Hezbollah, and said: "We have never sought the disarmament of Hezbollah." He just wants to set conditions for the group's use of arms. By Monday these conditions had changed. After it emerged that Hezbollah had gained control over Mount Lebanon and Jumblatt gave the order to lay down arms, Amin Gemayel, a leader of the Christian Phalange Party, came along and stipulated only one condition for holding a national dialogue: that Hezbollah make a commitment never to use weapons against Lebanese in Lebanon. This is the ironclad condition. A mere commitment. Not disarmament and not discussion on the use of weapons. A short time later Talal Arsalan, the new Druze leader, appeared and announced that all the weapons of the coalition - i.e., the Christians and the Sunnis - must be handed over to the army. Arsalan made it clear that he knows the locations of all the arms depots and that he has the names of those men bearing arms, and emphasized that there is thus no point in trying to cheat him. And so the wheel turned: Those who had demanded that Hezbollah lay down its arms are now being told to disarm. The diva's role And these were just the opening salvos of the media diplomacy in which the sides engaged this week, as a continuation of the armed diplomacy. The next stipulation was advanced by Druze Member of Parliament Wiam Wahab, a Hezbollah supporter, who called on the army to enter the government palace and eject Fuad Siniora. At the moment, this is the goal of Nasrallah and his partner Michel Aoun, who has made it clear that the precondition for any negotiations is an agreement to establish a national unity government, in which Hezbollah and its partners will be ensured a total of one-third plus one of all government members. This ensures Hezbollah veto power over any major governmental decision. These are the conditions put forth by the party considered the victor of the present crisis, with the aim of preventing a swift descent into an all-out civil war. "Those who love Lebanon do not sing in honor of its jailers. You have described to us the nation of dreams, do not diminish that dream the way the dictators of Damascus have diminished our dream of a democratic and free country," pleaded Lebanese MP Akram Chehayeb. The Druze Chehayeb, a member of the Progressive Socialist Party headed by Walid Jumblatt, addressed his plea to the national diva, the singer Fairuz. He issued this emotional call because she agreed - after some 30 years of absence from Damascus - to participate in the opera "Awaken!" (Sah al Noum), which was produced in Damascus in the framework of a festival celebrating its inauguration as "the capital of Arab culture for 2008." Today the MP will need far more than that. It is those forces singing in honor of Syria that are dictating how Lebanon is run. The question now is not whether Siniora's government will fall, but rather when and how. This will be the grounds for the next demonstration of force between Hezbollah and the government. The relative quiet that has prevailed in Lebanon in recent days should not mislead anyone. Nor should the deployment of the army. Nasrallah is now loping toward the government building. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Animated massacre Animated Israeli film at Cannes explores Sabra and Shatila massacre. Kowtowing to funders When papers are sponsored, can their reporting be truly independent?   1.   nothing left to do but annihilate iran 20:51  |  frenz 16/05/08   2.   nasrallah.. teach them a lesson or two.. 21:17  |  bashar 16/05/08   3.   The future for Israel 21:26  |  Clickfool 16/05/08   4.   No opposition to Hez 21:37  |  Anonymous 16/05/08   5.   The Lebanese government has already been overthrown 21:53  |  Gee 16/05/08   6.   bla 21:59  |  bla 16/05/08   7.   Thanks Clickfool 22:00  |  Sar Chasm 16/05/08   8.   CLICKFOOL (#1) SO, what is New? 22:13  |  Gil 16/05/08   9.   #2 Clicky , sweet wet dreans for you . 22:28  |  TOMY 16/05/08   10.   Lebanese:You weren`t careful,you weren`t prudent.You are betrayed 22:43  |  Vittorio 16/05/08   11.   Siniora and his "followers"..! 23:11  |  Stephen. 16/05/08   12.   Lebanon, nation of cowards 23:20  |  McQueen 16/05/08   13.   Rubbing........your hands clickfool? 23:20  |  Man deVoshkes 16/05/08   14.   Heartbreaking-Lebanese Rendered UTTERLY DEFENSELESS 23:21  |  Linda Rivera 16/05/08   15.   UN Resolution 1701 BETRAYED Israel, Lebanon & the Free World 23:26  |  Linda Rivera 16/05/08   16.   Lebanese Christians, Israel`s Jews BETRAYED by peace agreements 1 23:29  |  Linda Rivera 16/05/08   17.   Lebanese Christians, Israel`s Jews BETRAYED by peace agreements 2 23:31  |  Linda Rivera 16/05/08   18.   Lebanese and Israel`s Jews BETRAYED by peace agreements 3 23:35  |  Linda Rivera 16/05/08   19.   Clickfool 23:45  |  Lee 16/05/08   20.   Lessons 23:58  |  Pierre 16/05/08   21.   Clickfool, you forgot about Israel benefitting from the 00:27  |  Jew- and Bookburner 17/05/08   22.   Hey Lefties .. Are we all STILL Hezbollah? 00:35  |  GZLives 17/05/08   23.   Well Said Anonymous from Chicago 00:41  |  Max Horoskopski 17/05/08   24.   Clickfool feels safe in England?! 01:44  |  Prophet 17/05/08   25.   Clickfool 02:05  |  Avi 17/05/08   26.   Clickfool 02:05  |  Avi 17/05/08   27.   LEBANON CARVED FROM SYRIA 02:18  |  JOHN ISH ISHMAEL 17/05/08   28.   rivera 02:20  |  Imad 17/05/08   29.   #2 Anonymous, perhaps reread the article... 02:37  |  Johnboy 17/05/08   30.   leb government are traitors! 04:05  |  Christian Lebanese 17/05/08   31.   THIS IS ALSO ISRAEL`S PROBLEM 04:24  |  MOSIACH 17/05/08   32.   inshalla your term syria 06:02  |  tony 17/05/08   33.   At times it is best to compromise RIGHT ??? 07:02  |  M. S. 17/05/08   34.   Siniora should have gotten the boot long ago 08:44  |  Natallie Durson 17/05/08   35.   The article is not complete! 08:53  |  GK 17/05/08   36.   Is this the end of Lebanon? 08:53  |  Jean Van Daem 17/05/08   37.   #34, Durson "he will not be missed on the international scene" 10:39  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 17/05/08   38.   Then watch Nasrallah be plucked off his victim 18:06  |  Free Lebanon 17/05/08   39.   #3 BORIS THE CLUCKING FOOL AND HIS CRYSTAL BALLS 18:27  |  v hardman 17/05/08   40.   A different take from the Lebanese press 18:31  |  Mark Lincoln 17/05/08   41.   People of Labanon are tired of Senora.Majority 20:13  |  Ibrahim 17/05/08   42.   Clickfool safe in england? Prophet #24 Of course. 20:48  |  S 17/05/08   43.   Only after a president is elected!! 21:48  |  lebanese 17/05/08   44.   palestine was carved from Syria too 21:52  |  lebanese 17/05/08   45.   Bush democracy 22:08  |  ramzi from Holland 17/05/08   46.   If Haaretz was situated in Lebanon... 00:12  |  under mine 18/05/08   47.   Hogwash 01:11  |  Kareem 18/05/08   48.   The goverment will stay. Zvi Barel is very Naive 02:23  |  David 18/05/08   49.   Clickfool hits a nerve 02:37  |  Hank N Tennessee 18/05/08   50.   sinioura 03:55  |  azad 18/05/08

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