Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz has trailed Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in every poll ahead of Wednesday's Kadima leadership ballot, but remains so confident he'll win that on Sunday he even predicted his percentage of the vote.
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz.
Photo: Ariel Jerozolimski
"I believe that on Wednesday, I will win in one round with 43.7% of the votes," Mofaz told reporters at Transportation Ministry headquarters, explaining that the number was based on an in-depth study of the 74,000 Kadima members.
Mofaz was relying on a statistical model employed by his strategic adviser, US Republican Party operative Arthur Finkelstein, that proved accurate in the 1996 and 1999 elections. The model factors in the expected turnout and the candidate's support in all the various sectors across the country.
Livni's supporters mocked Mofaz for engaging in prophesy. A cabinet minister who endorses her said there was "a 0.1% chance of Mofaz's prediction coming true."
"I felt pity when I heard Mofaz say that, because his campaign is changing his message three times a day," Livni's strategist Eyal Arad said. "Their despair is clear."
Mofaz also predicted that he would be able to form a government immediately after the primary that would include all the current coalition partners, as well as other parties, later identified by his associates as United Torah Judaism, Justice for the Pensioners, and the National Union-National Religious Party.
Sources close to Mofaz said his confidence came from talks he held with Shas Chairman Eli Yishai and his fellow party member Communications Minister Ariel Attias during Sunday's cabinet meeting. A Shas source confirmed there were talks between Mofaz and Yishai about the makeup of the next coalition and its guidelines.
"I see Shas as an important element in the coalition and they will continue to be so," Mofaz told The Jerusalem Post at the press conference. "But we have understandings with all the factions."
Mofaz said he did not expect Shas's demand for a raise in child allowances to prevent him from forming a government.
His associates said it was less likely that Israel Beiteinu would return to the coalition, calling its leader Avigdor Lieberman " a tough nut to crack."
Responding to reports that a Livni campaigner referred to his supporters on Thursday night as "riffraff," Mofaz said he was disappointed that Livni did not fire the aide, as she should have fired her campaign manager, Moshe Shehori, who was caught misusing a car, cellphone and office staff of the Fund for the Welfare of Holocaust Survivors for the benefit of her campaign.
"In 40 years of public and military service, I never once felt discriminated against for my ethnicity," said Mofaz, who was born in Iran. "This was the first time I heard it clearly and directed at me.
"This shows her lack of courage and leadership."
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