Analysis: No writing on the wall

The Yom Kippur riots in Acre have been called both a pogrom against Jews and a pogrom against Arabs. But in a pogrom, one side is the aggressor and one is the victim. The street violence in Acre more closely resembled a soccer riot, with hooligans from both sides going at one another.

And that's what they were - hooligans. Jewish and Arab "gangs," as Acre Mayor Shimon Lancry called them.

The riots began with a provocation by an Arab driving through a Jewish neighborhood on Yom Kippur, which set off a gross overreaction by Jews who beat and stoned the driver and his son and wrecked their car, which set off false, inciteful rumors among Arabs who came out as a mob to trash Jewish stores and cars, which brought out a Jewish mob in response.

Chanting, "Death to the Arabs," or, "Death to the Jews," the marauders burned, stoned and beat their way through the streets of the city for several nights running.

Is this the start of a delayed sequel to the riots that swept through much of Israel's Arab sector in October 2000?

Probably not. Those riots, which lasted from October 1-9, spread across the Galilee immediately, while as of last night, the fourth night after they began, the Acre riots hadn't spread at all.

What's more, the sort of spark that set off the 2000 riots - the killing by police of six or seven Palestinian rioters on the Temple Mount, which marked the start of the second intifada - is not present now.

There is nothing going unusually wrong in Israeli Arab society to produce the kind of violent rage seen eight years ago. Yes, they are still discriminated against, they are still second-class citizens, but unfortunately that's nothing new. There is no fuse under them. There is no writing on the wall.

However, one caveat: If the Acre riots continue and produce an Arab martyr, everything could change in an instant. The same effect, from the opposite direction, could occur if a Jew is killed.

In October 2000, the rioting spread from the Galilee to the mixed Arab-Jewish towns of Jaffa, Ramle, Lod, Karmiel and Acre only toward the very end, when Jews and Arabs in these cities attacked one another.

But in the eight years since, things have been quiet. There have been some reports of Arabs throwing stones at (presumably) Jewish drivers in Wadi Ara. In Karmiel a few months ago, a few dozen young Jewish hoodlums attacked an Arab man's car and put him in the hospital. But these are isolated incidents.

Relations between Jews and Arabs in Israel have never been good, but since October 2000 they've become unusually frigid. Political attitudes have hardened on both sides; enmity and suspicion have increased. Still, with rare exceptions, the mutual antagonism is nonviolent.

The Jewish majority's fear of Israeli Arab political violence is greatly exaggerated, and has been for some time.

In May, University of Haifa sociology professor Sami Smooha, the leading pollster on Israeli Jewish-Arab relations, found that 62 percent of Jews fear that Israeli Arabs will start a popular uprising, and 64% of Jews do not enter Arab towns.

This is paranoia. Israeli Arabs aren't Zionists, but they aren't insurgents, either.

A veteran journalist in Nazareth blamed the fear and loathing between the country's Jews and Arabs on "politicians from both sides who incite their public for political gain." This has certainly been in evidence since Yom Kippur.

On the Arab side, MK Ahmed Tibi (United Arab List/Ta'al) called the Acre riots a "Jewish pogrom," while MK Muhammad Barakei (Hadash) called it a "pogrom against Arabs" carried out by "fascist gangs."

On the Jewish side, MKs Estherina Tartman (Israel Beiteinu) and Yuval Steinitz (Likud) called the riots a "pogrom" against Jews, while MK Avigdor Lieberman (Israel Beiteinu) compared them to Kristallnacht and MK Arye Eldad (National Union-National Religious Party) said that "police shouldn't be surprised when Jews take up arms to protect themselves."

So much for crisis management.

By yesterday, though, Acre's Jewish and Arab leaders seemed like they might be getting a handle on the situation. They were due to meet last night to try to make the peace.

MK Abbas Zakour (United Arab List/Ta'al), a local resident, was quoted as saying the city's Arab leaders would publicly chastise the Arab driver who drove through the Jewish neighborhood on Yom Kippur.

Referring to Acre's Jews as "our Jewish brothers," Zakour said, "We will try to find a way to restore the normalcy of coexistence and shared life to the city."

From the sound of it, Acre's soccer hooligan types may finally be obliged to get their hatreds back under control.